A Plain-Language Examination of Climate Claims, Model Assumptions, and Observational Evidence
This website presents a clear and accessible overview of the book Validation of Greenhouse Effect Models, a work that challenges the widespread assumption that climate models predicting catastrophic warming are scientifically reliable. Rather than beginning with consensus or rhetoric, the book examines how well models match the real-world observational record of the greenhouse effect, using satellite-derived data from 1985 to 2022.
Across six chapters, the book explains the underlying mechanism of the greenhouse effect, summarises three major model types, examines their assumptions, and evaluates their performance against observed data. The chapters are written in plain language while remaining faithful to the underlying physics and scientific method.
This Home Page provides a summary of the book’s structure and the key ideas presented in each chapter.
An overview of the central themes of the book, including:
What is Climate Change? - Explains the difference between the everyday meaning of climate change and the formal UNFCCC/IPCC definition, which applies only to human-caused effects.
If it’s not about mitigating our changing climate – What is Climate Change? - Shows how climate change has evolved into a belief structure focused on decarbonisation rather than a scientific question about natural and human influences.
Climate Change Denial - Discusses how scepticism is often misrepresented as denial, and why scientific inquiry depends on questioning assumptions rather than accepting consensus.
The Models - Introduces the three greenhouse-effect models examined in the book: IPCC, TRANS, and Cardinal.
Observed / Estimated Temperature Rises since 1750 - Summarises key temperature estimates and the importance of satellite-derived greenhouse-effect data from 1985–2022.
Expectations from Model Outcomes - Sets out what each model predicts and frames the scientific method used for validation.
A plain-language outline of how the greenhouse effect operates.
Introduction to the mechanism - Describes how infrared photons emitted from the Earth's surface travel upward and interact with greenhouse gases, forming the fundamental process behind atmospheric heating.
Factors involved in trapping photons - Explains how photon absorption depends on gas abundance, wavelength matching, collision frequency, and radiation intensity.
A simple absorption band - Uses an idealised absorption band to show why certain wavelengths are strongly absorbed while others pass through unimpeded.
The atmosphere - Summarises how the troposphere and stratosphere differ, why most greenhouse absorption occurs near the surface, and how vertical temperature structure affects the overall greenhouse effect.
A summary of the structure, assumptions, and predictions of the IPCC greenhouse-effect model.
Basis of construction - Describes how the IPCC Model embeds the assertion that anthropogenic emissions cause warming, making it a self-confirming framework rather than a testable scientific hypothesis.
Detail and outcomes - Explains how forcing calculations, sensitivity multipliers, and feedback assumptions produce projections that fail to match observed greenhouse-effect data from 1985–2022.
An outline of the TRANS Model, which partitions climate influences between natural variability and greenhouse-gas changes since 1750.
Basis of construction - Summarises the TRANS Model’s descriptive foundation, incorporating both historical and modern greenhouse-gas contributions alongside natural climate drivers.
Detail and outcomes - Shows how the model improves on assertion-based structures but still cannot fully reproduce the observed behaviour of the total greenhouse effect.
A summary of the Cardinal Model, an empirically optimised model that matches observational data with exceptional accuracy.
Basis of construction - Introduces the variance-minimising approach used to determine the model's parameters, emphasising natural variability as the dominant influence.
Detail and outcomes - Describes how the Cardinal Model reproduces the 1985–2022 greenhouse-effect record precisely and offers outcomes inconsistent with high-sensitivity, catastrophic warming scenarios.
A final comparison of the three greenhouse-effect models and what they imply about past and future climate behaviour.
Fit to observations - Evaluates how each model compares to the observed greenhouse-effect record and why the IPCC Model fails validation.
Historic data to 2024/25 - Discusses how extended observational data reinforces the importance of natural variability and contradicts claims of accelerating warming.
Projections from 2024/25 - Summarises what can credibly be said about future warming based on validated models, highlighting the moderate projections suggested by the Cardinal Model.
This site presents a structured, plain-language summary of the book Validation of Greenhouse Effect Models.